Sinnerman`s Quest

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Delay

I have to apologize for the delay in publishing the index update. I had a problem with my subscribtion of newspapers the analysis of which in needed. I will solve problem today.

I remain

Thursday, November 29, 2007

MSI for 29.11.2007

MSI is going down today suggesting the market is bearish.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

MSI for 28.11.2007

The move up is stalling suggesting we should remain neutral and watch the further development on the market.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

I think I have reached the level in foreign exchange market investment when I can say that I enjoy it. I have still worries when my position is going 50 pips down before coming back again but at the end I enjoy the trade and I have constant gains - 7 now in a row. Before restarting my life it was absolutely not clear that I would ever have such results. MSI published on this blog on daily basis is a good additional tool to see where the market sentiment is. Last weeks it was very bullish. Today it has started to become more neutral - it is my impression, exact analysis will come later. But as I said MSI is only an additional tool. I my analysis I am mostly quite technical using one very complicated theory called Market Profile to see exact support and resistance zones and very simple analytical tools to see where market is going. And according to these tools I remain bullish.

I have lot of work to do but first time since years I have time again to enjoy my hard life. I can afford it (in terms of time) to go to some nice restaurant in down town and stay 3 hrs. there speaking about philosophy and not about investment, I can have a good break sitting if front of some nice cafe having a cup of hot tea (very good for such a cold weather). Therefore you will hear more and more about this part of my life in the near future (in case everything goes like I plan it).

As for FX again: I had a good return of 2.2 per cent today on my main account and I think this is very good result.

Now I go back to work. I will be quite late back home today so I do not know whether I can put my MSI tonight on the web. But tomorrow morning it will be for sure there.

All the best.

MSI for 27.11.2007

MSI is bullish suggesting EURUSD is a buy

Note

As I have problems with uploading my picturs to the right side of my blog I will put daily updates of the Index on the main page. Next one coming soon

Monday, November 26, 2007

First MSI chart

I am putting today first MSI chart which you can see right of this post. I know it looks a bit strange but this is because it measures only last two days of MSI - price actio relation. Over the time it will become much more like a "normal" chart. To explain it shortly: MSI is going up today and price was range bound last two days.

Later I will put it on the right side of this blog bellow Son of Man and will update it on daily basis.

All the best

Media Speculation Index - How to

What?: the Media Speculation Index (MSI shortly) is a part of my PhD work - it is something very new and in a testing phase. As I am working in a communication science I use a quite new approach to measure the market sentiment. I am a believer of the theory that the sentiment of buyers and sellers are one of the most important market forces which affects price action almost every minute and on every tick.I have studied different available sentiment indicators and have found them to be not reliable for the short term (intraday traders). Therefore I was forced to create a new indicator for this exact trading style.Why Media Speculation?: because this index measures where the sentiment of most important media sources like Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Economist, Forbes etc and it is based on the assumption that in these media sources are represented expectations, decisions, fears and hopes of most important market players.What does it measure? In the future this index will be applicable to every currency pair or to every market product but currently I can use it only for EURUSD pair because of limitations in time (I am working alone on this and cannot conduct daily research for many indices).How does it measure: MSI is based purely on qualitative content analysis.How to read it: the initial starting point for the index is zero. It can move up or down that means it can go in plus or in minus - that is reach plus 500 pints or more or minus 500 points or less. Minimal rising pint is 0.1 and minimal falling pint is -0.1. It has no up or down limits. MSI can move 100 points up or down in a single day.Why you need it: MSI is planned to be a price action forecasting tool, it is non lagging indicator.How to interpret it: for exact methods of interpretation more empirical research is needed. Today I can say this: When MSI moves strongly up price action will be bullish and when it moves strongly down price action is expected to be bearish. If its moves are not strong in comparison with other days then market is expected to be range bound.I will put first forecasts tomorrow. Please use it as a sentiment took for the market monitoring and not as only tool for the trades. It is very "beta" thing and only in the testing phase. And in this phase lot of unexpected things can occur.